Hotter heatwaves, higher sea levels and more severe droughts: This is the sweltering reality in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) where climate change is an especially urgent issue. By 2030, temperatures in the world’s hottest, driest and most water-scarce region are expected to increase more than twice the global average. Given the combination of structural fragilities, civil wars, and poverty, the impact of the region’s susceptibility to some of the most severe consequences of global warming on real people’s lives are far-reaching. 

Why Is the Middle East So Vulnerable?

Climate change is the long-term alteration of temperature and typical weather patterns in a place. The climate of an area includes seasonal temperature and rainfall averages, and wind patterns. Different places have different climates. A desert, for example, is referred to as an arid climate because little water falls, as rain or snow, during the year. Other types of climate include tropical climates, which are hot and humid, and temperate climates, which have warm summers and cooler winters. 

Professor Jos Lelieveld, of the Max-Plank Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and the Cyprus Institute Nicosia, Cyprus, explained to Majalla why the MENA region’s geological and ecological particularity makes it the most vulnerable to climate change: “In the subtropics, atmospheric circulations promote high temperatures and dryness. The lack of rainfall inhibits the presence of vegetation and soil moisture. In temperate regions, for example, warming can be counteracted by enhanced evaporation over land. In the mostly cloudless Middle East, atmospheric mechanisms that temper climate change are weak and can even amplify the warming. In addition, evaporation from the sea causes high humidity, but rain remains absent, which causes great discomfort, for example in the Gulf area,” he said.

While countries around the Gulf will be most strongly affected by heat extremes in summer, Prof. Lelieveld says that countries that presently still have rain and agriculture will suffer from increased droughts. In the entire region, however, “heat waves will become more extreme, with important consequences for public health,” he added.

Water Woes

The Middle East and North Africa has been experiencing almost continuous drought since 1998 – the most severe dry spell in 900 years according to NASA.  According to the World Bank, the region is home to 6 percent of the world’s population, but only 1 percent of the world’s freshwater resources, with 17 countries in the region falling below the water poverty line set by the United Nations. With rainfall projected to decline 20 to 40 percent in a 2°C hotter world, and up to 60 percent in a 4°C hotter world, the region’s ability to provide water to its people and economies will be severely tested. It is expected that by 2025, 80-90 million people will be exposed to water stress.  These worsening conditions will eventually make parts of the region uninhabitable. By 2100, “wet-bulb temperatures”—a measure of humidity and heat—could rise so high in the Gulf as to make it all but uninhabitable, according to a study in Nature. 

Where Middle Easterners will still be able to live, the reduction in the availability of water will stoke tensions over diminishing resources. The United Nations has warned that swelling populations and food demands, combined with even scarcer water and land resources, could lead to a doubling of food prices as local crops will become depleted and farmers’ livelihoods blighted – triggering civil unrest in some developing countries.

Several countries are already experiencing instability connected to climate change-linked drought. An example of global warming’s damaging power is the war in Syria: “We have seen an example in Syria, where the rural population could not cope with the extended drought period since the end of the 1990s. By suppressing the protests and the demands for help in 2011, combined with the so-called “Arab spring”, the violence escalated,” said Prof. Lelieveld

The prolonged dry spell in the country led to the death of 85 percent of livestock in the east and widespread crop failure, pushing 800,000 people into food insecurity and triggering mass migration from rural to urban areas with farmers moving into urban centers like Damascus and Aleppo. From 2002 to 2010, the country’s total urban population increased by 50 percent, priming the populace for concentrated, large-scale political unrest.

“It was observed that displaced inhabitants of rural areas who went to seek employment in Syria’s larger cities, a large portion of which were already overpopulated, formed disenfranchised belts of disparate communities surrounding Hamah, Homs, and Daraa. This contributed ultimately to extreme political unrest outbreak of conflict in Syria, and followed by President Bashir al Assad use of his armed forces against them.” Jamal Saghir, a former World Bank director and currently professor at McGill University, told Majalla.

Climate-induced economic despair and migration also worked to grow the influence of ISIS in Syria. When ISIS controlled large swathes of territory across Iraq and Syria, it wrested control of dams that provided drinking water, electricity, and irrigation to millions along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. “ISIS capitalised on the devastation brought by climate change to attract new members as it happened in several agricultural villages in Iraq, many of which were successfully taken by ISIS via their recruitment tactics that were created to entice impoverished farmers who had their lives and incomes devastated by a series of natural disasters, such as drought and harsh winds. These ISIS recruiters even offered money, food, and other riches to rural Iraqis to allure them into joining the ranks of the jihadist group,” Prof. Saghir said

Water-induced conflicts have broken out elsewhere in the region, too. “The fight over water supply in the basin of Jordan, Tigris-Euphrates, and the Nile Rivers one of the major conflicts in the region,” Rusul Al Shihab, director of Earth Day 2020 for the Middle East, told Majalla

In Jordan, one of the world’s most resource-poor states, many houses only get up to 24 hours of water a week. Protests broke out in the summer of 2018, the largest in recent years, over severe water shortages and food which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Hani al-Mulki. Another vulnerable water war hotspot is the Euphrates and Tigris river basin which flows through Turkey, Syria and Iraq. All three countries want to use as much water as possible for irrigation, and all three want to use the river flow for generating electricity.

The most prominent example of how the mere prospect of shortages can lead to conflicts is the Renaissance Dam project which has sparked a dispute over Ethiopia’s development needs, versus Egypt’s concerns over water scarcity and climate change. At present, unpredictable dry and wet weather in the Nile Basin — caused in part by climate change — is contributing to intermittent floods and water shortages. When Ethiopia started building an enormous dam on the Nile, potentially limiting the flow, Egypt, which relies on the river for nearly all of its water, threatened war.

Also threatening the Nile Delta, an area that makes up just 2% of Egypt’s total area, but is home to 41% of its population—roughly 100 million people – are rising sea levels. “The Nile-Delta is among the most threatened areas, with sea-level rise potentially displacing millions,” said Prof. Saghir.

All along the delta, the river banks are already eroding and much of the northern delta is gradually sinking into seawater, drowning rich agricultural land and communities. Researchers has estimated that if sea level rise, oil and gas drilling, and groundwater pumping continue unchecked, nearly 3,000 square kilometers of the delta will sink by 2100.

A report by the United Nations said that if Egypt’s agricultural sector could decrease by as much as 47 percent by 2060 as a result of groundwater being inundated by saltwater and hundreds of billions of Egyptian pounds, about two to six percent of future gross domestic product (GDP), could be lost from effects on water resources, agriculture, coastal resources, and tourism.” 

With 70 percent of the MENA region’s agricultural production rain-fed, the sector is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in temperature and precipitation as a result of climate change, especially as agriculture employs more than 35 percent of the region’s population and contributes 13 percent to the region’s GDP vs the global average of 3.2 percent. The world’s top nine wheat importers are MENA countries. Yet, around 50 percent of regional wheat and barley, 40 percent of rice, and nearly 70 percent of maize for the region is met through imports.

“Although 30-35 percent of the Arab countries depend on imports, regulating water usage, reducing unnecessary consumption and eliminating water-waste could be the key factor to help agricultures stability and its communities in the region,” said Al Shihab.

“Some countries in the Middle East are politically unstable and do not support their citizens with the means to adapt to climate change, for example, by helping farmers to cope with droughts and by adjusting cities to manage the consequences of heat extremes,” he added.

Urgent vs Long-Range Threats

Syria, Libya, Yemen – with so many urgent issues in the Middle East, the region is distracted from the long-term threat of climate disruption. “With the political unrest and sectarian conflicts in many of MENA’s countries, attention on rescuing the environment and fighting climate change has shifted. Such a shift causes a weak waste management systems, scarce water resources, lack of afforestation, as well as an absence of environmental education and awareness.” Al Shihab.

Despite the enormous security threats facing the region, Prof. Lelieveld says that the acceptance of climate change as an important issue should be higher on the political agenda in the Middle East. “Political instability, poverty and climate change are a “toxic mixture for society, and the international community needs to help countries such as Syria, Libya and Yemen. Other countries in the Middle East need to realize that ignoring climate change will not make it go away, and actually the problems will accelerate in time, he said.

“With increasing heat extremes, and water and food supplies under threat, people need help from their governments. Improving water management, agricultural methods and city planning are already of high priority. Countries that neglect these needs face societal unrest, which will undermine national and regional security.”

“The dependence on fossil fuels needs to decrease. Improved awareness and adaptation measures are required. Investments in non-polluting and future-oriented technologies and agriculture, together with education will make societies more resilient,” he added.

Prof. Saghir says that “transformative” policies are needed in the Middle East to confront the new global climate reality and that in pursuing such policies, special attention needs to be given to “preventative measures that anticipate and mitigate exacerbated risks to avoid insecurity driven by food, water, and energy scarcities,” he said.

“The transition to a more energy and water secure and more diversified region, I think, is one of the most important ways that we can invest and seek advantages. Rather than focusing on the threats of climate change, this is an opportunity to use our climate awareness and our ability to innovate,” he added.

Once such opportunity lies in the Middle East’s abundance of sunshine. “The region has lots of sunlight, for example, which can be used to desalinate seawater and generate the energy needed to cool down in summer. Solar energy can be used to generate hydrogen, which could become the energy carrier of the future,” said Prof. Lelieveld.

This article was reposted with permission from Majalla.

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The coronavirus pandemic forced Earth Day online for its 50th anniversary.

But that didn’t stop millions from mobilizing for the environment. Part of this historic event included the launch of Earth Day Global Halt, a campaign showcasing hundreds of climate-themed pieces from around the world, on April 22. 

The project connected artists using the hashtag #2020halt and encouraged them to envision our future as a warming planet. 

“[The goal of Global Halt] is to get street artists, graffiti artists, muralists around the world to come together for one united message,” said Meg Zany, a Los Angeles-based street artist who coordinated the project, on Earth Day.

This week, we’re highlighting two artists taking action every day for the environment. After all, Earth Day isn’t just a day — it’s a movement. 

Pakistan

Shehzil Malik

Shehzil Malik, a street artist in Pakistan, creates art to amplify female voices in the region. 

“I’m inspired by my observations as a woman in Pakistan, my conversations with other women and people different than myself — the uncomfortable ideas not openly talked about,” says Malik. “And the biggest impact of climate change is on the most vulnerable people:women in the Global South. Women-led community movements are integral to achieving climate justice.”

But the environment hasn’t always been central to her art. After the air in her home city of Lahore became unbreathable, things changed. 

“I could smell smoke outside,” Malik says. “There was no visibility and I would get headaches spending too much time outdoors. So I sought out environmental activists.”

In 2019, Pakistan ranked second globally in air pollution, with an average PM2.5 concentration six times above the World Health Organization’s recommendation. Lahore ranked twelfth among global cities. 

Malik submitted two pieces for the #2020halt street art project. The first highlights human’s destructive relationship with nature, the exact relationship that fueled our current pandemic. The second, “The Future is Green,” reimagines our future without “eurocentric, misogynistic and industrialized norms,” says Malik. 

“It would be a civilization based on how much you gave back and not how much you took,” she says. “A picture can speak 1,000 words, so if I draw something that makes you rethink the status quo or think about a story from the point of view of the marginalized, my hope is that it changes your mind and behavior. The first step to changing things is to realize that there is a problem that needs fixing — and this applies to individuals, wider society and environmental issues.” 

KAZAKHSTAN

Pasha Cas

Pasha Cas grew up in a very green place, surrounded by nature. Since his childhood in Kazakhstan, though, he’s traveled the world, creating projects in city environments from New York to Moscow. 

“Environmental issues have always been important to me,” Cas says. “If you want to say something in street art, you don’t ask permission — you go outside and talk about it through art. And I am incredibly upset about the environmental situation in the world.”

Cas speaks out for freedom of speech for art and artists in Kazakhstan because he knows their importance in social and environmental movements. Kazakhstan faces dangerous levels of air pollution in major cities, radiation from Soviet nuclear testing sites and drinking water shortages. 

In 2016, Cas tackled these issues with his mural “Dancing!”, featured above, painted on an apartment building in Temirtau — a residential area with industrial plants. He juxtaposed Henri Matisse’s “Dance,” which originally stood for luminosity, joy and rebirth, around a smokestack.

“Onсe I surfed the internet and came across a photo of the city of Temirtau… I didn’t believe it was in Kazakhstan,” Cas says. “This piece is an all-consuming illusion of satiety, demonstrating the power of those who sit ’on the tube’ over those who dance around it. And we dance desperately around the pipe of fossil natural resources.”

Cas submitted his project, “Child of the Earth,” for the #2020halt street art campaign. In the photo, a person lies in the fetal position in a grass circle to highlight our connection to nature.

“I wanted to say that the Earth is our mother, and humanity is an integral part of the planet, not something foreign and original,” he says. “We must treat the Earth as we treat our mothers.”

Artists are integral to the environmental movement, making the daunting subject of climate change personal. Earth Day Network’s Artists for the Earth campaign connects artists and arts organizations around the world for climate action: Sign up today.

Photo credit for featured photo: Olya Koto, “Dancing!” by @Pashacas on Instagram.

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Art affects people on a personal level — inspiring action and instilling a deeper consciousness of the world around us. It can also be a powerful tool to spread awareness of environmental issues and climate change, both of which profoundly affect our existence.  

Even as the world shutters in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, people are finding solace in making art and sharing it with others. And, a few young Middle Eastern painters — influenced by other activists and Earth Day Network’s Artists for the Earth campaign — are using their talents to fight climate change.

Sana Hussein

With a career spanning more than nine years, Sana Hussein joined the environmental movement after seeing how a changing climate directly impacts her community of Konya, Turkey. Using modern art techniques, Hussein reflects on the importance of saving our environment and motivating others to take action.

For the 50th  anniversary of Earth Day, she contributed three portraits: “Earth Beauty,” “Tulips” and “Daisy Flowers.” In all her pieces, Hussein emphasizes the role of women in fighting climate change. 

Aysha Al Musdi

Aysha Al Musdi learned to draw by watching YouTube tutorials. She creates pieces about the environment and teaching complex techniques to other aspiring artists in Turkey. 

Al Musdi painted this piece, entitled “Our One and Only Earth,” in honor of Earth Day. She used greens and blues to depict the liveliness and gorgeousness of our planet. 

Nour Qasim

Nour Qasim uses her artwork to illustrate the magnificence of nature. 

For the 50th anniversary, she merges the concept of women’s beauty with a wild landscape. With “Eyes on Earth,” she intends to demonstrate that climate change affects more than just the natural world around us – it impacts humans, too. 

Amal Obaid

Amal Obaid cares deeply about our planet. She never attended school, but she learned quickly the detrimental effects climate change will have on bird species.

Obaid drew “Save our Species,” an artistic painting to save and protect our feathered friends.

Young artists are bringing energy and life to Earth Day 2020. And art will play as big of a role as it did on the first Earth Day back in 1970. The planet needs us now more than ever. On April 22, the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, join the largest digital mobilization for the environment, and sign up as an Artist for the Earth.

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Earlier this week, United Nations recognized its World Water Day with the theme “Water and Climate Change.”

This year, the U.N. emphasized the urgent need to act on water scarcity, while highlighting the uphill battle we have ahead of us: As climate change intensifies, the water scarcity crisis becomes more complex.

“It could be said that water supply is the ultimate victim of climate change, whether resulting in scarcity of water or floods,” said Mona Alalawi, President of the Bahrain Women Association for Human Development.

Rising temperatures have increased water evaporation all over the world, creating more erratic rainfall. This rainfall interrupts regular agricultural cycles, with floods in some seasons and severe drought in others. Even if floods create an influx of water in a region, they come with environmental backlash: Floods can cause intense erosion, making water sources undrinkable and destroying crop fields.

Though water covers 72% of our planet’s surface, only 3% of that water is freshwater. And two-thirds of freshwater is trapped in frozen glaciers and icecaps.

According to the U.N., 1.1 billion people around the world consistently lack access to water, and 2.7 billion experience water scarcity for at least one month of the year. These communities often endure extended periods with limited water and take long journeys in search of new sources.

Should society continue to ignore water scarcity, especially as the world experiences the severe consequences of climate change, we’ll be in big trouble, said Alalawi.

In other words, it’s time to sound the alarm and conserve our water supply.

Water conservation now

While shorter showers and turning off the faucet while washing dishes will help, 92% of human water usage comes from agriculture and industry. We must, therefore, use more renewable energy, choose energy-efficient and water-conserving household appliances, create more efficient irrigation systems and grow crops that need less water, said Alalawi.

Though many regions haven’t reached crisis level yet, six out of 10 people worldwide are expected to lack regular water access by 2050. So why haven’t we taken action yet? Basically, those with the power to enact this change don’t realize the global scale of water scarcity, said Alalawi.

“The fortunate masses who have easy access to water do not feel that they are impacting and are impacted by the world’s total water reserves,” she said.

Water scarcity is not just one isolated problem, though — it’s global: California and Australia have been ravaged by wildfires in the face of long droughts; the Colorado River — which provides water to 30 million people and 3.5 million agricultural acres — is at its lowest levels in recorded history; and Europe already imports nearly 40% of their water from other countries, leaving it vulnerable to scarcity even outside its own borders.

“We cannot afford to wait and fall into a crisis to realize that we are all connected and that our actions impact others,” said Alalawi. “We must work together right now to stop this water scarcity disaster.”

Just as climate change has taken decades to reach global crisis levels, so too has water scarcity. But if we act now, we have the opportunity to learn from our mistakes and plan ahead for the future of Earth’s freshwater.

On April 22, for the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, millions will mobilize digitally to demand climate action to protect our planet and water sources. Will you join us?

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Yemen is one of the countries most affected by climate change, culminating in everything from shifting seasons and unpredictable rainfall to soaring temperatures and fiercer, more frequent hurricanes.

Through its partnerships, Earth Day Network – Middle East mobilizes the region to face these environmental challenges. Earth Day Network’s partner, the Ibdaa Foundation for Environment and Sustainable Development, is one of these organizations fighting climate change in Yemen.  

“As long as we live on this Earth, it is … our duty to fight climate change and save our planet,” said Yaser Baazab, president of the Ibdaa Foundation.

Last week, Ibdaa led a youth cleanup for Earth Day 2020, in connection with Earth Day Network’s Great Global Cleanup campaign. The initiative targeted beaches in and around the city of Aden. Ibdaa also recently arranged a workshop called “Gender and Climate Change” that discussed the role of women in sustainable development and environmental education.

Another workshop, titled “Climate Change and Its Effect on Environment,” emphasized environmental laws and policy reforms. The event, also held in Aden, was attended by environmental experts, educators, local officials, youth and college representatives.

Additionally, Ibdaa is working with the education office in Abyan Province to organize an environmental education campaign focused on student awareness for the Earth Day Teach-in movement. Each session is followed by a cleanup.

Protecting our environment is everyone’s responsibility. Earth Day Network and its partners around the world fight against climate change and raise our voice for the Earth. Learn more at our environmental education page and our Great Global Cleanup campaign.

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Floods in Jeddah, droughts near the Dead Sea, rising sea levels in the Mediterranean. One of the regions hit hardest by climate change is the Middle East and North Africa. And the problems keep adding up.

Lower rainfall and higher temperatures have dried up the Dead Sea, shrinking the salt lake by nearly a third in the last 20 years. Compounding problems are farmers and civilians who siphoned off River Jordan, one of the sea’s tributaries.

Alexandria, on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt, has the opposite problem. As sea levels rise, the city of 5 million people is sinking. Some of the driest parts of the region have also suffered from flooding. Jeddah in Saudi Arabia has suffered almost yearly from floods caused by sudden fierce storms.

The Middle East and North Africa have also had record high temperatures in recent years — the highest recorded temperature in the region to date was 54°C (129°F) at Kuwait. In the same week, Basra in Iraq recorded 53.9°C. The Global Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan fifth of countries most vulnerable to climate change.

As Middle East and North Africa continue to warm, we urgently need action. And that action will require all hands on deck. That’s why Earth Day Network is mobilizing youth, NGOs and governments across the region to reduce the burden of climate change.

More specifically, Earth Day Network is partnering with local governments and schools to provide environmental education resources for sustainable development in curricula. We’re also launching end plastic pollution campaigns, establishing nature clubs and arranging cleanups all over the region. All these actions will lead up to what we hope will be an unforgettable April, when Earth Day marks its 50th anniversary.

We’re building the world’s largest environmental movement around Earth Day 2020 for a better, more secure and more sustainable future. Join us on April 22 when we take to the streets and demand bold climate action.

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